I. Market Pulse
MONETARY DEBASEMENT SIGNAL ACTIVE: Gold (+1.4%) and Silver (+3.2%) rising together with
US 10Y Yield (4.07%, +0.5%). Fiscal dominance signal — market fears unsustainable debt load.
Global Indices
| Index |
Price |
Δ % |
RSI |
Signal |
| S&P 500 |
6,901 |
+0.81 |
50.1 |
Golden Cross |
| Nasdaq |
22,859 |
+1.24 |
44.6 |
Golden Cross |
| TSX Composite |
33,395 |
+1.52 |
58.5 |
Golden Cross |
Commodities
| Commodity |
Price |
Δ % |
RSI |
Signal |
| Gold |
$5,019 |
+1.37 |
56.1 |
Golden Cross |
| Silver |
$78.05 |
+3.19 |
46.8 |
Golden Cross |
| Crude Oil |
$64.78 |
+3.70 |
58.5 |
Death Cross |
II. Alpha Signals
- CONTRA-SIGNAL — NVDA: Congressional insider sold twice ahead of
earnings. Contrasts with bullish technicals.
- CONVICTION BUY — SHOP: Surged 9.7% with Buy rating and 19.9% analyst
upside.
- VALUE SIGNAL — RY: Issuer purchased 300K+ shares below current price
— strong internal conviction.
IV. Watchlist Triggers
| Ticker |
Signal |
Rationale |
| RY |
BUY |
Issuer buying significant shares below current price |
| NVDA |
WATCH |
Congressional selling ahead of earnings |
| SHOP |
BUY |
Strongest performer (+9.7%); analyst Buy rating |
| Crude Oil |
LONG |
Geopolitical catalyst driving prices higher |
VI. War Game Scenarios ♟️
Regime: VIX = NEUTRAL (18.70) | Market Trend = BULL
| Scenario |
Prob. |
Description |
| 🐻 Bear: "Escalation" |
25% |
Geopolitical escalation → oil surge → inflation shock. Play: Defensive
rotation. |
| ⚖️ Base: "The Grind" |
50% |
Tensions contained. Upward grind on earnings. Play: Tactical momentum. |
| 🐂 Bull: "Resolution" |
25% |
Diplomatic breakthrough → risk-on rally. Play: High-beta tech. |
VII. The Oracle's View
- Warren: The sustained issuer purchases by Royal Bank below current trading price
suggest strong conviction in intrinsic value.
- Charlie: Congressional selling of NVDA ahead of earnings offers an inversion signal
— caution warranted.
- Actionable Wisdom: Focus on RY. Consistent large-scale buybacks indicate management
views the stock as undervalued.